关键词: 最小二乘法, 煤耗预测, 最低调峰补偿电价, 调峰经济性

Abstract: In this paper, the coal consumption data matching each load rate of the 300MW generating unit of a power plant in the past year are screened and preprocessed ，and the coal consumption prediction model of the generator unit is given by using the curve fitting method based on the least square principle. Then，the actual benefit difference per hour under two conditions of participating in peak - regulating and no participating in peak- regulating is taken as the objective function ，and the minimum compensation price is calculated ，which provides a reference for the decision - making of power plant peak load regulation bidding. Finally, the influence of coal consumption and peak - regulating load ratio on the economy of the power plant is analyzed.

Key words: least - squares procedure, coal consumption prediction, the minimum compensation price of peak - regulating, economy evaluation of peak - regulating